What Teams Are Playing On Sunday Night Football Today Careful When You Bet Only Against The Public

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Careful When You Bet Only Against The Public

The public does fall in love with some games, and the old adage “If it looks too good to be true” still holds strong. Of course the books still have big bucks when the public overwhelmingly loves the NFL side of the game. But let’s look at the weekly NFL schedule as an example. Let’s say we look at the top 10 games and let the public pick the winners of each of those 10 games. Most likely, the public will guess an average of 4-6 of those 10 games. Simple math will tell you that the public fade as your only method of handicapping may not be a wise decision. When you consider that in the NFL, the public often bets on the better team, you have to wonder if just weakening the public can even win.

Of course, we recommend using “public” as part of your handicap, but be sure to use other tools. The best handicappers will never be stubborn or never think they are smarter than the odds makers. Never discard important handicapping methods. Take all that into account. Here are some important factors that handicappers should consider in the NFL.

1. Quarterbacks – Of course you need more than just a quarterback, but it’s often a very simple question to ask yourself.

2. Running Game – Often times if you don’t have a chance to throw the ball you are in for a long day on the field. Also with a favorite who can run the ball he will have a better chance of covering that favorite spread.

3. Offensive and Defensive Lines – The average Joe won’t pay attention to this part of the handicap and it’s that simple. Sometimes you have a mismatch in the trenches that will speak volumes.

4. Home and Away – Study this carefully. Some teams can’t play at a high level on the road, and some don’t care if they are at home or away. With some teams that aren’t that good, they usually have the ability to turn it on in front of the home fans.

5. Trends – There’s a debate about whether it’s better to fade or follow trends, but sometimes it’s good to know if a team has beaten a team 12 times in a row. After a while it gets into the player’s head.

6. Field Goal Kickers – If you can’t kick a 40 yard field goal, it changes everything. Make sure you know who your kicker is.

7. Revenge – Some people say revenge is not important, but these athletes are competitive and remember if they got kicked the last time they played.

8. Line movement – As much as I’ve been told, don’t use it as your only handicapping method. A good handicapper will notice. Pay attention and see if you can find a trend.

9. On Deck – More so in college football, but many times you’ll find a team that isn’t 100% focused on the game at hand with an even bigger game next week.

10. Pressure – Some teams handle pressure very well and some are the king of chokers. You can usually get a feel for what the team is like. If everything is on the line and the team has proven that they are not good in critical situations, don’t expect that to change overnight.

Bottom Line: There is no right or wrong way to handicap a game, but always be willing to learn and take advice. Don’t let pride get in the way. Also stay away from teams you have a strong interest in as a fan. It’s hard to stay objective and even though you think you are, you often aren’t.

A handicap is not a sprint. Don’t try to get rich overnight. Realize it’s a marathon and set reasonable goals. Make sure you’re ready. Take everything into account and never think you are better than the quarterback. If you are able to do this objectively, you may just set yourself up for a winning season.

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