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Gab Session – NFL Drafters Should Believe Their Eyes
The NFL draft is such an amazing combination of hype and groupthink. When you hear seven “experts” say the same thing over and over again, you start to believe it’s your opinion. Often the “experts” who repeat the same talking points got their opinion from someone else. Who probably works for the player’s agent.
I don’t know what the Oakland Raiders will do at the top of the NFL draft in 2007. But I watch an awful lot of college football. What I do know is that JaMarcus Russell, for all his supposedly inhuman gifts, is not a great football player. He just didn’t. LSU is one of those schools that (at least during Russell’s nearly three years as a rookie) has done enough to be very good. But at LSU, Russell went through periods on the field where he just looked… kind of disinterested. Or maybe that’s the wrong word. Maybe “bad” is the word I’m looking for. I mean, isn’t LSU a team that struggled to score points against Auburn, Florida and Mississippi last year? Didn’t they have one of the most feared defenses in the nation, but an offense that couldn’t get out of the way on a fairly regular basis? And this idea that Russell has great accuracy in his powerful right hand is not entirely true. He was great in the Sugar Bowl, I’ll grant you that, but Notre Dame’s defense was pathetic in ’06.
Calvin Johnson, on the other hand, is amazing. And I saw a bunch of Georgia Tech games last year and I walked away thinking, “Man, Johnson is a great player.” And also, “Man, Reggie Ball is not very good.” I mean, Johnson caught 15 touchdowns and 76 passes for 1,202 yards from a guy who never graded a quarterback above 66.8 in his four-year career at Georgia Tech. Trust your eyes. Johnson was uncovered at the NCAA level, and defenses will have to plan to keep two men around him the moment he steps onto an NFL field. Will he score every time he touches the ball? Not. But whoever drafts Johnson will immediately have a better running game, as the safeties will be instructed to turn to Johnson, and a better receiving corps, as Johnson will draw double teams.
I know Oakland needs a quarterback. I know they have (disgruntled) Randy Moss. But they should believe their eyes. They should take Calvin Johnson.
The NFL draft is this weekend. What do you think are the biggest stories and which rookies will have the most immediate impact on their new teams?
BoDog Bookmakers, BoDog.com: You can expect to see some trades this year that will shake up the top of the order. Calvin Johnson is coveted by many teams, and Detroit knows it. Unfortunately (or perhaps fortunately, depending on your view of the situation), the Lions have loaded up on wide receivers in recent drafts. Matt Millen will make Johnson the No. 2 pick and then entertain offers for this future superstar. Meanwhile, it’s hard to say which rookie will have the biggest impact without really knowing which team he’ll end up with after the dust settles. If we look at the players most ready for the NFL, it would have to be Adrian Peterson, Patrick Willis, Calvin Johnson and Gaines Adams, in that order.
The Yankees may be off to a slow start, but A-Rod sure isn’t. What odds would you give Alex Rodriguez to break the single-season home run record this year?
BDB, BoDog.com: A-Rod has been phenomenal throughout his career. Unfortunately, he’s still 60 runs shy of that particular record, and is actually behind the ridiculous pace set by Barry Bonds in 2001. Would you believe Bonds had 14 in 14 games? Barring injury, Rodriguez will come very close, but when games start to matter a little more, pitchers will throw around him or just intentionally walk him to avoid his swing entirely. At this point, I’d put the line at 7/1.
Are the Miami Heat absolutely toast in their playoff series against Chicago, down 2-0, or do you give them a legitimate chance to come back and win?
BDB, BoDog.com: Dwiane Wade’s shoulder injury has slowed Flash to mere mortal speed. His supporting cast is dismal to say the least, and without any additional help the injured Wade won’t be able to repeat last year’s brilliance. We see the results of the NBA rule change giving the team with the best home record instead of giving it to the team with the best seeds. If Miami can make it two straight at home and steal the next game in Chicago, they have a chance. But it is small.
One round until the NHL playoffs, will you change your Stanley Cup predictions? Which teams impressed you and who made it to the finals?
BDB, BoDog.com: Buffalo is still the favorite in the East, but I have to say Ottawa was impressive. They’ve always had the firepower, but now Ray Emery is showing he can handle the pressure of the playoffs. This gives Ottawa its first reliable goaltender since 1999. Whichever team wins the San Jose-Detroit series should sweep the West. The Canucks and Ducks will be a fun series with all its subplots, but I don’t think either team will have enough left to take down the Wings or Sharks in the next round.
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