What Time Is The Fresno State Football Game Today Betting Trends

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Betting Trends

I like matches and situational handicap. This includes things like strengths vs weaknesses, bad lines, homecoming and revenge spots. I’m not big on betting trends. Trends can be dangerous. Some sports betting novices think, “This team has lost 3 in a row against the number, which means they are more likely to cover this game.” Well, you better have more reasons on your side to support the team than just something like that.

For example, Fresno State entered the game at Hawaii two weeks ago as the home dog. Fresno hasn’t covered since the end of last season. Anyone looking at trends might think that Fresno HAS to cover this game, because they need coverage. Well, that kind of simplistic thinking doesn’t cut it in the competitive world of sports handicapping.

For the record, Fresno was bombed again, 68-37 as a +3 home pass. That dropped them to 0-6 against the spread this season. Okay, so maybe they’ll cover the next game, right? Now they are REALLY in debt! Well, the factor is still strong as Fresno failed to cover again, this time as a +31 passer at La Tech, a 38-6 loss. OK, they’re getting close, but try telling that to the man at the betting window while waving your loss in his face. They won’t cut it!

I would suggest focusing more on the fixtures and things like home/away and current play rather than looking at the trend. For example, on NFL Sunday, I played against the Atlanta Falcons in Cincinnati. In my analysis, I noted, “This game comes down to who rules the trenches. Atlanta owns a league-leading 6.1 yards per rush, with the Eagles a distant second at 5.2. Simply put, the Falcons throw the ball at everything.

They passed for 220 yards in 4 of 6 games. Cincinnati, on the other hand, is allowing 4.6 yards per carry, well above the league average of 4.0. That’s why I expect the Falcons to control the clock and have great success moving the ball. Cincinnati is considered to be an explosive offense, but that is not the case this year. The Bengals are averaging 5.1 yards per play, which is in line with a league-wide average of 5.1 ppg. Atlanta enters with 5.5 yards per play on offense.

The Bengals have really fallen on hard times offensively as of late. In the last three games, they scored 17, 13 and 13 points. What makes these numbers even stranger is that Carson Palmer hasn’t been thrown in any of the last three games. In fact, they only have two total turnovers in those games. So it’s not like mistakes are keeping them out of the end zone.” Atlanta has the personnel to give the Bengals offense problems and they should have a big day running the football.” Cincy not only covered, but won.

See what I was looking at? First, look at what I didn’t see: No trends! Second, I examined how the Bengals have been playing lately, the mismatch on the field that has favored the visitors, and the public perception that Cincy is an explosive offense. Cold, hard facts, to me, are more important than any betting trend or “lag factor”.

That’s the catch for trend bettors: WHEN will this trend happen? It’s impossible to tell based on the lagging trend factor alone. A successful sports handicap encompasses so many factors. It is much wiser to look at as many factors as possible, such as home ground, weather, playing surface, coach, strengths versus weaknesses and venues for revenge. Winning in ATS is about picking all the pieces and finding several edges in the game, not just one corner.

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