What Time Is The Fresno State Football Game Today Profitable Correlated Parlay Strategies

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Profitable Correlated Parlay Strategies

Parlay bets are one of the most profitable products that sportsbooks can offer their customers. When bookies place a straight bet, the theoretical retention for the house is 4.5%. On parlai bets, this profit margin is effectively multiplied by the number of bets, or legs, involved in the parlai. So, in a game between two teams, the bookmaker could expect to make 9% of the total money. Considering the math, it’s easy to see why it would be in the best interest of bookies to entice customers to make these types of bets.

While parlays are generally money-making machines for sportsbooks, there is one big exception to the rule: parlay correlation. A parlay is considered correlated when the outcome of one of the bets in the parlay would have a significant effect on the outcome of the other bet in the parlay.

To illustrate this point, I’ll use the obvious example of the NFL using straight AFC bets and straight Super Bowl bets. If you bet on the New England Patriots to win the Super Bowl, then obviously they had to win the AFC Championship to get to the Super Bowl, so the full AFC result is 100% correlated with the direct Super Bowl. Combining these bets is such an obvious winning strategy that no bookmaker will allow you to place them.

Now let’s take a look at some less related parlaie that will allow you to make bookies and local bookies. Imagine an NCAA football game where USC is a 35.5-point favorite to beat Fresno State, and the over-under for the game is 47. For USC to cover the 35.5-point margin, they would have to score at least 36 points. If they are successful in that, then you should seriously consider betting the game to go over 47 points, since covering USC would effectively give you a 36 point lead to start the game. In fact, if Fresno can only get one touchdown, then you’d automatically win the bet if USC covers the touchdown.

The previous example is a popular type of correlation between betting on the favorite and betting on the total. Any equally strong correlation exists by betting on the underdog and betting that the total is less. Negative correlations have been proven to exist if you try to pair a favorite and an underdog, or an underdog and an over. I highly recommend staying away from these “anti-correlated parlays” unless your strategy is to lose money as fast as possible!

The higher the proportion of the total to the spread, the stronger the correlation. As a general rule of thumb, if you divide the spread by the total and get a number greater than 0.35, you can bet these correlated parlies blindly and make money in the long run.

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