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Gab Session – The Maddest Of Marches
How great will this NCAA Men’s College Basketball Tournament be?
I mean, of course, the George Mason thing was great last year, and let’s not forget that Wichita St. and Bradley reached the Sweet 16, LSU shocked Duke, Kansas lost in the first round for the second straight year, No. 14 seed (Northwestern St.) shocked No. 3 (Iowa) and No. 2 Tennessee needed a buzzer beater to avoid defeat of #15 Winthrop.
Heck, we might not even have that many upsets this year, and I can practically guarantee you that no one from the Colonial Athletic Association is making the Final Four. But a combination of factors will come together to make this one of the toughest years to fill the office ranks. Here’s why:
Freshmen! Over the past decade, guys like Greg Oden and Kevin Durant would have jumped straight to the NBA, but now they play at least a year in college. It creates some big surprises. Who would have thought Texas would even be in the tournament this year after losing all five starters from an Elite Eight team, let alone a threat to make a dent?
Underclassmen Who Leave. And while that’s all well and good, you still have far less quality in traditional schools because their students don’t stay for four years. This is a great tier: LaMarcus Aldridge (Texas, #2 in ’06 NBA Draft), Tyrus Thomas (LSU, #4), Rudy Gay (UConn, #7), Patrick O’Briant (Bradley, #9), Ronnie Brewer (Arkansas, No. 14), Cedric Simmons (NC State, No. 15), Sean Williams (Memphis, No. 17), Quincy Dubey (Rutgers, No. 19), Renaldo Balkman (South Carolina, No. 20), Rajon Rondo (Kentucky, #21), Marcus Williams (UConn, #22), Josh Boone (UConn, #23), Kyle Lowry (Villanova, #24), Shannon Brown (Michigan St., #25) and Jordan Farmar ( UCLA, #26). All of these kids left before their fourth year, as we can expect Oden, Durant and others to do after 2007. That kind of continuous talent drain culture brings the little guy closer to the big guy.
Publicity for “non-traditional” schools. Fewer and fewer teams are dazzled by the national television spotlight playing in the Big Dance. The Missouri Valley Conference gets more pub crawls than Britney’s nether regions these days (well, okay, it’s close), so there really isn’t anything “mid-major” about the MVC. Winthrop beat Mississippi St., Old Dominion and Missouri St. on the road this year. and gave North Carolina, Maryland, Wisconsin and Texas A&M a scare (their only four losses). They might not win the first game, but they certainly won’t be afraid of their opponent.
Who is the main seed? No one seems to want to be #1 this year. A month ago it was easy: North Carolina, Florida, UCLA and Wisconsin. Then each of those schools started losing. UCLA was just eliminated in the first round of the Pac-10 tournament. Carolina lost three of its last six regular season games. Florida has lost three of its last five. Wisconsin has lost two of its last three. Now Ohio St. the top ranked team in the country, but man, they are young. Does anyone really expect them to put together six NCAA Tournament games? Other No. 1 seed possibilities: Kansas, Texas A&M, Georgetown, Memphis (ev). There is no perfect team in the group.
Either way, it should be an amazing March Madness. No team is without flaws, and few are without chances.
Man, the NFL never sleeps. What do you think have been some of the best acquisitions so far in pro football’s free agent season?
BoDog Betting, BoDog.com : The two teams made a series of moves that made them the “co-winners” of the early 2007 free agency period. The New England Patriots shed their tag as a “thrifty” team and really made a splash in free agency. Adalius Thomas has arguably been the most sought-after defensive player on the market, while Wes Welker has quietly become one of the most versatile PR/KR/VR players in the NFL. They also added value in backup RB Sammy Morris to offset the loss of Corey Dillon. The San Francisco 49ers have also done a lot to improve their woeful secondary that ranked 26th against the pass a year ago. Nate Clements is a Pro-Bowl caliber DBm, while Michael Lewis is a solid if unspectacular upgrade at safety. On offense, the Niners added Ashley Lelie, another deep threat to work in QB Alex Smith’s offensive arsenal.
I’ll ask you about some specific NCAA tournament matchups next week, but for now, can you give me your expected Final Four, pre-bracket?
BDB, BoDog.com : Let’s leave it to the Bodog oddsmakers for this one. Currently, the top four favorites to win the NCAA title are North Carolina (9/2), Florida (9/2), Ohio State (6/1) and Kansas (6/1).
And give us a couple of #9 seeded teams or worse that you think have the best chance to pull off a first round upset?
BoDog Sportsbook, BoDog.com : Well, everyone counted Gonzaga out when they lost Josh Heitvelt to suspension, but you can never forget the Zags when tournament time rolls around. After losing to a very tough Memphis team by one point on February 17th, Gonzaga won its last five games to win the West Coast Conference tournament for the fourth straight season. Senior guard Derek Raivio has put this team on his shoulders and so far he’s doing it. Also keep an eye on Syracuse if he gets an offer. The Orange beat Georgetown on Feb. 26 and have won five of their last six games after struggling in late January.
Mavs or Suns? Suns or Mavs? I know Dallas was incredible during the regular season…do you see that translating into another trip to the NBA Finals? Does Phoenix have enough to do it this time? Can San Antonio sneak in there?
BoDog Sportsbook, BoDog.com : Teams that make the NBA Finals are rarely one-dimensional. Therefore, until Phoenix learns to play defense, or attack in the half court, they will have their doubts. Still, at 9/4 to win it all, they also have their fair share of believers. San Antonio isn’t going to sneak up on anyone. Not with a roster that includes Tim Duncan, Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili. The Spurs are 7/2 to make the NBA Finals and 6/1 to win. That hardly constitutes flying under the radar. However, according to Bodog’s oddsmakers, the team with the best shot is the Dallas Mavericks. They are a complete team that can beat San Antonio with a suffocating defense, and overwhelm Phoenix with a barrage of offense. The Mavs’ ability to play anyone’s style makes them a 1/1 favorite to return to the Finals and 2/1 to win the title.
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