What Time Is The Thursday Night Nfl Football Game Foote Notes: NFL Observations – November 15, 2005

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Foote Notes: NFL Observations – November 15, 2005

Electric bill chargers … San Diego comes into the bye week and is 10-1 ATS against teams with a losing record from last season. Their next victim should be Buffalo (+9.5) this week at home. The Bills are coming off a 14-3 home win over KC after JP Losman replaced the injured Kelly Holcomb. But the win wasn’t pretty as BUF managed just 209 yards of total offense and the Bills’ vulnerable 31st-ranked defense gave up 150 yards to Larry Johnson and company. Rumor has it that LaDainian Tomlinson will be peppering his mouth with pounds of drool all week at practice as he dreams of facing the Bills’ beleaguered rush defense.

Breaking Wind at Soldier Field … Chicago could be 6-3 SU (5-3-1 ATS) after their most recent no-coverage 17-9 win over San Francisco in a game that featured 50 MPH winds and a 108 TD return yards on a Bears Nate Wascher field goal late in the second quarter. But alarmingly for Bears fans, all six of their team’s wins have come against losing opponents. CHI is 0-2 SU against teams with winning records, including a 24-7 fire at home against Cincinnati in Week 3. A Bengals loss could portend a bad omen as Carolina (7-2 SU, 5-4 ATS and 3-0 both SU and ATS L3) comes to town this week. Like the Orange Cats, the Panthers boast an excellent offense (4th-highest scoring unit in the NFL), and Chicago’s 24th may not be able to keep up and hang under a bit of pressure (+2.5 press) .

Road Warriors … Forgive Indianapolis for not covering a monster 17.5 point margin in its latest 31-17 home win over the hapless Texans after their emotional win over the Patriots a week earlier. They still remain a perfect 5-0 in both SU and ATS on the track with a date in Cinci on deck. The Bengals are coming off a bye but are 0-2 SU and 0-1-1 ATS when playing a team with a winning record. Both teams have top-rated offenses — the Bengals and Colts ranked No. 10 and No. 1 by number of points. And these teams are one and two in the NFL in points allowed, with Indy securing the top spot once again. The real difference here can be made in the trenches as INDI ranks 10th over the race, while CIN only ranks 24th in the same category.

The Cardinals make the endangered species list … Arizona is an abysmal 4-16 ATS in its last twenty games and a disastrous 1-7 ATS against conference opponents after their most recent embarrassing 29-21 loss in Detroit. This could cause problems this week as they head to the Show Me State to take on the Rams. Overall score alert: Both teams are a combined 13-5 (r/w) this year. With these two teams playing, it’s time to hear Paul Simon’s music, “Slip Sliding away … Slip, sliding away…”

The Bucs were about to walk the plank… Tampa could be ripe for a big loss this week in Atlanta (-6) after a thrilling 36-35 win at home against Washington. Note that the road after a home win is the underdog to go 13-37 ATS next week when both teams boast winning records. On a further note, the Bucs are a miserable 2-10 ATS in their last twelve games. The Falcons should have plenty of extra motivation after a rare home loss, falling to the Packers 33-25 as an 8.5-point favorite. ATL 4-2 ATS after losing last season.

Oakland ready to attack bettors??? Norv Turner is an incredible 14-3 ATS over his last seventeen as an underdog on his way from +3.5 to +7. So don’t write them off with Washington (as they most likely will be) on the trail this week after Denver beat them 31-17 at home. The Raiders are also 3-1 ATS away from the Coliseum (or 2-2 ATS depending on which line you had when they played Kansas City at Arrowhead) and face a Skins team that has allowed 36 points in two of its last three games . In the second game during this stretch, VAS faced an Eagles team without Terrell Owens.

49ers No Fools Gold At Home … 4th string KB Cody Picket completed just one desperation pass the entire game (!!!) in the 49ers’ last 17-9 road loss in Chicago. But the 49ers are easily covered as a 13-point underdog and are actually 3-2 ATS at home with Seattle (-11.5) coming to town this week. The problem is that Seattle is 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS in their last five and has consistently avoided the banana peel that most of us expected to slip. In a similar matchup two weeks ago, the Seabirds dominated the Cardinals 33-19 to the tune of 4.5 points.

Just the facts ma’am… Home favorites are now 54-44 ATS on the season while road favorites are also profitable at 21-16 ATS. Overall, the favorites are a whopping 76-60 ATS. Breaking this down further, we find that -3 or less favorites are a ridiculous 41-23 ATS! Most notably, -3-or-less home favorites check in at 28-17 ATS, while field-goal favorites or less are 12-7 ATS.

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