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NFL System Spotlight #22 – Play Book Execution Penalties
There’s no doubt that rushing and passing stats are the predominant choice for handicappers looking to gauge team strength and the accuracy of point distribution for any given game. My analysis is no different in some respects – many of my situations rely on fundamental metrics like ROF and PDE that use yards per play stats to uncover situations that were profitable against the line.
What is being lost in all the attention focused on how well teams rush and pass the ball; however, the fact is that there are other equally important aspects of team play that can be just as predictive in nature as some of the more commonly used measures of team skill.
One such area that often flies under the radar of handicapping involves statistics related to team penalties and as we will explore here, certain kinds of penalties can be a particularly powerful handicapping tool in the right situations.
I’ve always found penalties to be an intriguing aspect of the NFL game and their effect is undeniable – who hasn’t felt the sting of a botched penalty that suddenly breathes new life into action that seemed to have ended only moments before with a wide margin of victory all but seeded. Inappropriate penalties can cost a team a game in the blink of an eye and turn a spread winner into a loser faster than TO can autograph the ball (in the end zone, of course).
I followed the sentence yardage statistics from the 1994 season i penalty yardage difference (average per game for which penalties are claimed Opponents minus the penalties imposed on the team in question) is the basis for another successful streak that is 78-14 ATS over the past 13 seasons.
While it’s good to know how many penalty yards a team averages per game or had in the previous game, this type of analysis tells us nothing about what TYPES of penalties the team is assessed and how the final penalty yardage total listed in box score.
Does the team in question take a lot of offensive calls because of a lack of size on the line? Or, are they hit with an abundance of pass interference calls due to a second-string CB forced into duty by injury? By separating penalties into more detailed categories and looking at them based on number of calls, as opposed to yards, we can begin to have better answers to questions like those posed above.
Ultimately, most penalties in the modern NFL game can be assigned to one of the following 6 categories:
1) False start penalties (FSP)
2) Offensive Hold Penalties (OHP)
3) Penalties for the execution of the Play Book (PBEP)
4) Defensive Line Penalties (DLP)
5) Secondary Defensive Penalty (DSP)
6) Stupid penalties (DMP)
The category that is the focus of this article is the third listed: Penalties for the execution of the Play Book. This group includes all infractions related to interrupting play calls. Examples of this are: Illegal formations, shifts, movements, snaps, participation, substitutions and procedures; Game delay (in certain cases); Illegal forward passes; 12 people on the field; Ineligible receivers and so on. For a full overview of the other categories, see page 12 2007 NFL Game Sheets Guide.
The league average for PBEP is usually around 0.7 calls per game (for each team). Arizona was worst in the league in 2006 in PBEP against averaging 1.5 per game, while Pittsburgh and Denver were 1-2 in the league with a PBEP of 0.2 and 0.4 per game, respectively.
As a standalone stat, PBEP is a good yardstick for measuring the quality of a team’s coaching staff and also gives an indication of whether players are being used in schemes where they are comfortable and possess the necessary skills to succeed. It’s no coincidence that teams like the Steelers and Patriots have a low PBEPA average year after year, while others, like the Cardinals, rank near the bottom.
When it comes to handicapping versus scoring, PBEPA becomes a useful tool when teams with extremely high PBEPA are examined.
Since the 2002 season, teams with a PBEPA avg more than double the league average of 0.7 (> +1.5 to be exact) are sad 168-213 (44.1%) ATS vs. no. In just the last 5 seasons, placing bets based on this simple strategy alone would have netted you a tidy profit of $2,820 with a $110 bet to return $100 each game.
There is actually another ‘Building Block’, or, Primary Condition that I like to use for this situation, which is: include only plays where the opponent has a higher secondary Defense Against Average (DSPA) penalty. When this condition is added, the situation record is reduced to 55-110 (33.3%) ATS and profit over the last 5 years jumped to $4,950.
DSP penalties include flags that are generally thrown on cornerbacks and safeties, usually for defensive pass interference and illegal contact. The complex relationship between PBE and DS penalties is something that requires further study on my part, but suffice it to say that for whatever reason they are tightly intertwined and the drastic improvement this situation gets when only teams with a higher average DSPA are included is proof of their correlation .
Rounding off this situation are two secondary conditions. The first specifies that games with an over/under of less than 38 are not included, and the 2nd removes teams coming off their bye week (teams with PBEPA issues do better against the spread when given an extra week of practice).
Here are all the details.
(Notes: ASMR indicates the average score of the front margin. A positive rating indicates a trend that is stronger than the average in relation to the line, a negative – weaker than the average. TDIS% is the percentage of teams in the league that have been involved in this situation at one time or another. % by weight is the percentage of teams that are .500 or better and SPR is the average range for teams in this situation. (For more details, see page 13 of my 2007 NFL Game Sheet Guide.)
Situational Trend Summary #22 (Last Updated: January 15, 2008)
Primary conditions (building blocks)
1) Penalty for execution of Play book (PBEPA) on average > +1.5 per game.
2) The opponent has a higher defensive secondary penalty average (DSPA).
Secondary conditions (tensors)
1) The team is not coming off a bye week.
2) Exclude over/under (OU) from situational statistics
Best teams: ARI (13); CLE(10); PHI(9); SEA(9)
Overall (since ’01): 21-82 ATS
2007 season: 2-5 ATS
2006 season: 0-7 ATS
2005 season: 5-20 ATS
2004 Season: 10-30 ATS
Last 3 results. Select in parentheses.
2007 VK15–MIA 22 BAL 16 (BAL -3.5) L
2007 VK13–NIJ 40 MIA 13 (NIJ +1) V
2007 VK11–PHI 17 MIA 7 (PHI -9.5) V.
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#NFL #System #Spotlight #Play #Book #Execution #Penalties