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Simple NFL Systems #40 – Favorites Of At Least 14 Points Coming Off A Big Win ATS
For those of you who like to bet on perennial Super Bowl contenders: Here’s a pretty simple NFL betting system that includes favorites with at least 14 points it was 20-0 ATS over the past 14 seasons and 3-0 ATS just last year.
Stretches of at least 2 TDs aren’t actually as common as you might think: since 1994, there have only been 93 games that have featured a 14+ point streak and the favorites have produced a fairly ordinary 46-47 ATS record during this time period.
Thanks in part to New England’s early dominance last season, 2007 saw the most 2-touchdown streaks in 15 years: a total of 13 games had a streak of at least 14 points. After getting burned in the first half of the season, the linebackers caught up with the Patriots and at the end of the season the heavy favorites were just 6-7 against the number.
Now, before I go any further, it’s important to note that trends or systems that involve a smaller number of games, such as this one, tend to be less reliable in predicting future outcomes than a trend that involves say 100-200 games.
Additionally, systems that typically only play a fraction of the teams in the league (in this case, only 34.4% of teams have been involved at one point or another) are also more susceptible to declining fortunes.
That said, a small system like this that includes a limited number of related conditions can be a useful tool in handicapping a game that lacks significant trends or other meaningful betting information. In other words: I don’t recommend making a choice based on that onlyto a trend of this nature, but, if you need to make a selection for whatever reason (ie an office crowd), a 54-56% chance of success (as this angle essentially provides) is better than nothing.
Now that I’ve raised the caution flag about the use of systems in this category, let’s get back to exploring the logic behind this particular trend.
Betting on big favorites is a habit that would normally be associated with the huge number of ‘squares’ that are bet each week and as their ATS record of 46-47 reveals, it is also a surefire way to lose money in the long run.
When we look at the big favorites that are a significant ATS win occurs; however, we suddenly have a very profitable situation on our hands.
Since 1994, favorites by at least 14 points that separate from a 14 points or more ATS wins are solid 21-7 ATS (75.0%) makes a profit of $1,330.00 when betting $110.00 to return $100.00 on each event.
In contrast, the big favorites who failed to cover the spread in their last game or covered by less than a field goal, are sad 16-28 ATS in their next game–with a 2-5 record ATS last season.
The lesson here is pretty clear: play the big favorites only as long as they still far exceed the expectations of the betting public. As soon as they fail to cover the spread with authority, discard them and move on to other opportunities. This pattern certainly applied to Pat’s final season, as well as many other dominant teams over the last decade and a half.
There is actually one finale secondary a condition I like to add to this system is to eliminate games where our heavy favorite’s opponent has a better record outside of their division than inside. Considering that 2-touchdown games are more likely to be non-divisional matchups than divisional, an opponent with a superior record in this situation can present problems for the favored team.
NFL league tables listed in newspapers or on the Internet usually do not list a team’s ‘non-division’ record, so the easiest way to determine whether the latter condition applies is to compare all together winning percentage with divisional winning percentage. A higher overall winning percentage clearly indicates that this team is playing its best football against non-division opponents.
When this last condition is added, the record of this system improves to 20-0 ATS since 1994. Here’s all the details, including the top 4 teams to find themselves in this situation over the last 14 years.
(Notes: ASMR indicates the average score of the front margin. A positive rating indicates a trend that is stronger than the average in relation to the line, a negative – weaker than the average. TDIS% is the percentage of teams in the league that have been involved in this situation at one time or another. % by weight is the percentage of teams that are .500 or better and SPR is the average range for teams in this situation. (For more details, see page 13 of my 2007 NFL Game Sheet Guide.)
System #40 Summary
Primary conditions (building blocks)
1) Favorite of >= 14 points.
2) ATS margin >= 14 in last game.
Secondary conditions (tensors)
1) Eliminate opponent with Total VP >= Divisional VP (DVP).
Best teams: SF(4); NO(3); STL(3); BALL(2)
Overall (since ’94): 20-0 ATS
2007 Season: 3-0 ATS
2006 season: 0-0 ATS
2005 season: 2-0 ATS
2004 Season: 0-0 ATS
Last 3 results. Select in parentheses
2007 VK7–NE 49 MIA 28 (NE -16) V
2007 VK5–NE 34 CLE 17 (NE -16.5) V
2007 VK3–NE 38 BUF 7 (NE -16.5) V.
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