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March Madness Odds and Sports Betting Tips: How To Win in the Big Dance, NCAA Tournament
In many cases, for example, what made us money during the regular season will be in March, but there are many new angles to squeeze money.
Take down the selection committee against Rocky and Company
Excluding points from the ninth seed to the eighth seed, we still like to go with the lower-seeded favorites to the higher-seeded teams. That being said with the caveat that excluding the four games mentioned above where the standings could have changed anyway, there have been tournaments where this does not apply.
But we’ll be more than happy to put our money on line builders that exploit false higher seeds.
Emotion in the short term, talent in the long run
When betting on half time lines we have rare cases of what seems too obvious to be true. But the public’s infatuation with big chalk betting has kept this from being a cash cow for the average Joe. Going away with the 16th seed in the first half has definitely earned my co-workers and myself some nice reserves over the years.
Before making a final decision, I study the game at the plate, but very often I then bet on the top seed in the second half. For the most part, the bottom seeds have guys playing in the biggest game of their lives, bar none. The seniors on the team are in many cases playing their last game of organized ball at any level. Others have the ultimate showcase for foreign league scouts.
Finally, there isn’t a single guy on the lower-seeded teams who hasn’t dreamed of starring in the college version of Lake Placid or becoming part of the biggest upset in Big Dance history.
All those intangibles for about 20 minutes usually go a long way to make up for the lack of talent. But more than 40 minutes has infinitely more talent and depth means, as Dick Vitale would say, “Blowout City Baby” in the second half.
Plus, if the bottom seed makes the game look interesting for a while, it serves to wake up the top seed at halftime. The second half represents an epiphany for a team that spent the first 20 minutes more concerned about the game two days later. Then the expected bubble burst occurs.
Once a faster, stronger, deeper No. 1 seed goes on that inevitable 10-0 burst, all illusions of grandeur come crashing down on the Squid State. The emotional roller coaster is going down. We cashed in with sixteen in the first half and a huge chalk in the second.
Beware of the “Guardians dominate” trap.
I keep hearing that it’s a “back-dominated game”. Then generally the following conclusion follows: “Handicap the guards first”. This belief is not so much a myth as it is inductive rather than deductive reasoning.
The simple fact is that there are a lot more guards out there than centers, so based on pure numbers alone there will be more guard-oriented teams moving forward. Of course, there will be more quarterback-oriented teams whose bubble also bursts at selection time. In fact, look at the bottom of any conference and you’ll find plenty of guard-oriented teams.
If true, the teams that have big men are the teams that will have the biggest mismatches – literally and figuratively. However, again, guard-oriented lovers don’t quite fall into the classic vs trap. In fact, smart players handicap teams as a whole.
Sure, the teams that have great three-point shooters are the best teams on the money line, but conversely, if they go cold, it can also be great to counter in the “pleasure.” They are high risk/high return, but there are also high return/low risk options.
Don’t fall in love with older people
It’s a simple syllogism: the teams with the best players win, the best players with few exceptions don’t stick around until their senior year, so the best teams aren’t loaded with seniors.
This indisputable truth is getting bigger every year. I will take a team with talent over a team with experience.
In fact, I’d be leery of favorites with seniors over a young team with a bigger side and nothing to lose.
Conversely, I am by no means suggesting that you always bet against the more experienced team. If you’re talking about a ten-point team (that’s a team that isn’t completely outplayed but gets a decent number of points), there’s enough reason to bet that they’ll cover, albeit not blindly.
Hypotheses about playing in your last game organized ball and exposure for
European scouts can inspire a contending team to go all the way, but I’d rather invest in a team like Arizona that lacks postseason exposure but high ability.
Fade the Chic Teams
One of the first questions so-called “experts” fall back on after the pairings are announced is “Who will be the dark horse teams.” So often Billy Packer on one network,
Dick Vitale on second, USA Today on Monday and so many media hacks and talkers pick the same team. One year everyone loves Eastern Michigan, the next Princeton.
Dark horse teams have an element of surprise and a motivational “no respect” factor. When all the puking paparazzi decide what the flavor of the month is for March, they’re no longer dark horses, are they?
Not only is there no element of surprise, but what better way to make sure his higher-seeded team doesn’t overlook their opponent than to point out that the media has labeled their foe as one of the potential Cinderella teams?
In fact, sight and opponent unseen. I wouldn’t be surprised if Gonzaga, the three-time glass slipper winner, now becomes an early causality as they face the burden of high expectations for the first time.
Don’t force yourself to bet on every game
I realize that there are occasional gamblers who bet what I like to call “lunch money” on games. As long as they are risking mere entertainment money to ensure that the game is interesting to them, it is harmless. And there’s always a book that’s happy to help.
However, when it comes to betting your own money, don’t feel that you have to bet on any game televised in your area. Get DirecTV or go to a sports bar to see good investments. Don’t check the morning sports page to see what’s on your local channel and convince yourself that it’s one of the strongest games on the board. Plus, if you choose the sports bar option, you might get a Final Four-caliber waitress. Just don’t tell the woman.
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