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Top 2010 Fantasy Football Overvalued Players
One of the keys to winning a fantasy football league is the ability to recognize overrated players and ignore them. “Slumpers” are NFL players who tend to be drafted in the top 3 at their position and produce like players drafted in double-digit rounds. These players are also known as “Draft Killers”, especially if they are first or second round players. The key to winning your fantasy football league is finding players who will produce on a consistent basis. You might be able to make up for a Slumper with a Sleeper, but it’s better to avoid dead weight if you see any signs of a potential drop. However, there are times when the signs are not present. A perfect example of this from 2009 was Matt Forte. No one expected to drop 300 yards and 8 total TDs from his rookie season in 2008. Michael Turner’s decline in 2009 was no surprise as he had 376 carries in 2008. Below are the top overrated fantasy football players by position.
2010 Fantasy Football Slumpers
KB: Matt Schaub (Houston) – As tempting as it is to put Brett Favre in this position, he hasn’t signed with the Vikings for 2010, even though it’s as inevitable as the sunrise. So he must be left out. Our pick for KB is Matt Schaub. In many of our drafts, he went as far as the third round. There are too many quality RBs and VRs available at this point in the draft. Schaub is too fragile to waste here. He somehow lasted the entire 2009 season, but it’s foolish to expect that to happen again in 2010. Plus, his success is largely tied to Andre Johnson’s VR. Johnson enters the 2010 season somewhat bewildered that the Texans didn’t terminate his current contract and reward him with a huge bonus and top VR cash. This situation tends to distract players so Schaub will suffer if Johnson’s head is fully in the game.
RB: Stephen Jackson (St. Louis) – There is no player in the NFL that I admire more than Jack. He is on the worst team in the league and is the only player that makes the Rams closer to a professional football team. Still, he isn’t complaining about the contract or the lack of talent surrounding him. He simply takes the ball and punishes defenders. However, constantly running into 8-man fronts takes its toll. That will remain the case this year as the Rams break through the rookie KB. While Jackson racked up over 1,400 yards last year, he carried the ball 326 times, plus caught 51 passes. That’s a lot of action and he only found the end zone on 4 carries. The last time he came close to this much activity was in 2006. In 2007, his yards dropped 33%, his TDs dropped 62%, and his receptions dropped 42%. You could see how much it took in 2009 as his last three games totaled 184 yards, 7 receptions and zero TDs. Jackson is still a first-round draft pick. You can’t risk your top pick running out of steam in your playoffs and you can’t sniff the end zone.
VR: Larry Fitzgerald (Arizona) – Fitz may be the most talented wide receiver in the NFL. However, he will be catching passes from one of the worst starting quarterbacks in the league; Matt Leinart. Leinart was a full-time starter in 2006 and it was the worst season of Fitzgerald’s career (69/946/6). Last year when Leinart started against Tennessee, Fitz was targeted 5 times and caught a measly 4 passes for 34 yards and no TDs. With a dual-threat running back in Beanie Wells and Tim Hightower, I expect similar numbers to 2006 for Fitzgerald, who is definitely not worthy of your first or second pick in the draft.
TE: Greg Olsen (Chicago) – Olsen enjoyed his best season as a pro last year; increasing his receptions, yards and TDs (jump to 8). He has two issues against him this year. First, the Bears signed Mike Martz. Marc has been known to forget that tight end is the true offensive position. Many of his plays require a quick read and throw away. While Olsen is one of the most athletic tight ends in the league, even he needs time to open up. The other problem is that Chicago found out that they actually have receivers on their roster. Devin Hester and Johnny Knok put up exceptional numbers last year compared to their expectations and will thrive in Martz’s offense this year. Even better, just when the league thought the Bears had a good defense of the passing scheme (see the Cutler interceptions), along came Devin Aromashodu. In Aromashod (how fun is it to say “Aromashod”?!) last 4 games, he caught 22 passes for 282 yards and 4 TDs. These three receivers remind Martz of the trio he had in St. Can anyone name a Rams tight end during the early 2000s?
D: Pittsburgh Steelers – The Steel Curtain was a bit tarnished in 2009. They scored 306 points and committed only 22 turnovers. You could argue that a lot of that is attributed to Troy Polamalu’s lackluster defense. But the fact remains that they are getting older and even a bit mangy. LB LaMarr Woodley has repeatedly expressed his displeasure with his contract. During the 2009 season, they lacked the normal killing instinct; losing at the end of games to Chicago, Cincinnati, Kansas City and Oakland that they wouldn’t have had in the past. Super Bowl hangover? Possibly, but I no longer see this defense as a top-5 defense.
K: Choose one (All) – Any player drafted before the last 2 rounds. In reality, the best way to evaluate a kicker is his bye week. Take one kicker and one kicker only, then pick one available in the final bye week so you can forget about that position for as long as possible.
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