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Getting an Edge in Sports Betting: Contrarian Sports Investing
Many people enjoy sports, and sports fans often like to bet on the outcomes of sporting events. Most casual sports bettors lose money over time, giving the sports betting industry a bad name. But what if we could “level the playing field?”
If we transform sports betting into more of a business and professional venture, we are more likely to be able to justify sports betting as an investment.
The sports market as an asset class
How can we make the leap from gambling to investing? Working with a team of analysts, economists and Wall Street professionals – we often throw around the phrase “sports investing”. But what makes something an “asset class?”
The asset class is often described as an investment with the market – which has its own return. The world of sports betting clearly has a market – but what about the source of the returns?
For example, investors earn interest on bonds in exchange for lending money. Shareholders earn long-term returns by owning part of the company. Some economists say that “sports investors” have a built-in inherent return in the form of “risk transfer.” That is, sports investors can earn a return by helping to provide liquidity and transfer risk between other sports market participants (such as the betting public and sportsbooks).
Indicators of investment in sports
We can take this investment analogy a step further by studying the “market” for sports betting. Just as more traditional assets such as stocks and bonds are based on price, dividend yield and interest rates – the “price” in the sports market is based on point spreads or money line odds. These lines and odds change over time, just as stock prices rise and fall.
To further our goal of making sports gambling more of a business venture and to further study the sports market, we collect several additional indicators. Specifically, we collect public “betting percentages” to study “money flows” and activity in the sports market. In addition, just as the financial headlines scream, “Stocks recover in a big way,” we also monitor the volume of betting activity in the sports gambling market.
Participants of the sports market
Earlier we discussed “risk transfer” and participants in the sports market. In the world of sports betting, sportsbooks serve a similar purpose as brokers and market makers for investing. They also sometimes act in a similar way to institutional investors.
In the world of investing, the general public is known as the “small investor.” Similarly, the general public often place small bets in the sports market. The small bettor often bets his heart, supports his favorite teams and has certain tendencies that can be exploited by other market participants.
“Sports investors” are participants who take on a similar role as a market maker or institutional investor. Sports investors use a business approach to profit from sports betting. In effect, they take on the role of risk transfer and are able to absorb the inherent returns of the sports betting industry.
How can we capture the inherent returns of the sports market? One method is to take the opposite approach and bet against the public to capture value. This is one of the reasons why we collect and study “Betting Percentages” from several major online sportsbooks. Studying this data allows us to feel the pulse of market action – and to determine the performance of the “general public”.
This, combined with the point movement and “volume” of betting activity, can give us an idea of what different participants are doing. Our research shows that the public, or “small bettors” – tend to be weak in the sports betting industry. This in turn allows us to systematically collect value using sports investment methods. Our goal is to apply a systematic and academic approach to the sports betting industry.
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